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American Home Business Network: Volatility the Carry Trade and The Macro Trader

Monday, July 27, 2009

Volatility the Carry Trade and The Macro Trader

By Bruce Theil

Macro traders trade virtually everything. They trade stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies looking for uncorrelated trade ideas with great risk to reward characteristics. Sometimes they will even venture into markets like real estate and even art.

You don't just trade different asset classes but even different strategies within an asset class. If you trade bonds you will have some directional trades on, some spread trades, and some arbitrage trades. All of his is to further diversify your returns stream. You can do the same types of things in every asset class which makes your streams of returns very uncorrelated.

One area that is particularly suited to the macro trader is that of the currency markets. Yes, they trade currency crosses and build their own cross baskets but macro funds are also known to trade one strategy called the carry trade quite frequently.

The carry trade consists of going long a high yielding currency and going short a low yielding currency to fund the trade. You make money in two ways. One is if the initial trade is profitable if the higher yielding currency goes up relative to the low yielder. The other way to earn money is to make money off the carry, or the interest rate differential.

To really juice the returns available from the carry trade you can and probably should use some degree of leverage. Some traders are modest and only use two to four times leverage while others are aggressive and use up to fifty times leverage. While high leverage is great when you are right they can be disaster when you are wrong as the losses are magnified on the way down just like they are on the way up. Of course is it that easy?

No, it is not. Yes, you can get the carry but if there is excess or even normal volatility depending upon the leverage being used you will blow up in traders terms. If this is the case, and it is, then what should a trade be focusing on when they are trying to execute the carry trade? Well the obvious answer is volatility.

You can use several different methods to estimate volatility. You can use the standard volatility index for the SP500. While it is designed and used primarily for equities it is a good estimate of volatility for most asset classes. Now days you can just use a currency volatility index like those from JP Morgan or many of the other investment banks.

If you are global macro trader trading the currency carry trade then you need to be paying attention to volatility or eventually you will lose a lot of money. By focusing on the risk you will be in a far better position for the rewards.

About the Author:


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Feature Article: Make the Leap to Home Based Business Success

Feature Article: Make the Leap to Home Based Business Success
Copyright © Stone Evans, The Home Biz Guy
http://www.PlugInProfitSite.com/main-21753

Before you can have a successful home based business, you must first possess 3 "intangibles." These are things that must come from WITHIN you.

 ===> Intangible 1 <===

First, you must have a strong WHY.

Why MUST you have a successful home business? What is driving you? What is it that you CAN'T have in your life anymore and/or what is it that you absolutely MUST HAVE now?

For me, I couldn't stand working 12+ hours a day anymore and missing the experience of my children growing up. I also absolutely HAD TO HAVE the freedom of being able to control my life and finances through a little box (laptop computer) that I could carry with me anywhere in the world and not be tied to anyone's time pressures or demands but my own. That was my carrot and my stick. I felt a great pain deep in my gut of missing out on my children's lives and the incredible freedom that succeeding in a home based business would provide for me. I found my why. You MUST find yours.

===> Intangible 2 <===

You must BELIEVE that it is possible.

If you don't believe that it's POSSIBLE for you to have a successful home based business or make your living from home, you won't. It's that simple.

For me, figuring out that it was possible was just a matter of realizing that many other people were ALREADY making great money working from home. If they could do it, I could too. It would just be a matter of figuring out what those people were doing and then adapting it to my situation.

There is no shortage of undeniable PROOF that people (millions of them) are making money working from home. Just get online and do some research and you'll find countless testimonials and stories of REAL PEOPLE making real money on the Internet. Or head to your local bookstore and you'll find the same documented evidence of this fact. Truth is, it's getting easier and easier to make money with your own home based business.

I've always said that "affiliate marketing" (a simple way to make money from home) is the job of the future. In the "old" days, you had to go to a potential employer, apply for the position and hope for the best. Now you can simply go to any company you want, fill out their affiliate application and start work immediately. Affiliates are the new working class. In fact, making money with affiliate programs or making your living on the Internet is WAY MORE than possible. It is pretty much (or will be soon enough) unavoidable now. Affiliate marketing is the "job" of the future that's already here TODAY.

===> Intangible 3 <===

You must be willing to MAKE THE LEAP.

Ready, FIRE, then aim... This is the operating philosophy you MUST adopt to succeed with a home based business.

That's backwards for most people who like to aim before they fire. The fact is that home based business success is a moving target... The only thing constant about it is change. You need to stop analyzing the game and simply jump into it. You can't learn from the outside... You have to be IN THE RING to truly understand it.

The lesson here is that you will never really be READY to start a home based business. You simply have to start one. It's like having children... You're never really ready, but when it happens you adapt and grow. This is what I call "Making the Leap."

The good news is that the cost of failure with having your own home based business is very small. In the "brick and mortar" world you need to evaluate things very carefully before you decide to open up a business. It's almost always necessary to invest thousands of dollars to get an offline business off the ground. However, on the Internet you can often start a successful business for less than $100. The Plug-In Profit Site is a great example of this: http://www.PlugInProfitSite.com/main-21753

You simply need to get IN THE GAME... Each moment that you stay "out there," you're wasting valuable time that you could be learning and skills necessary to build a successful home based business. In fact, if you're not in the game yet, you're ALREADY behind the times. Make the leap to creating a successful home based business today!

About the Author:

Stone Evans, The Home Biz Guy has helped thousands of people in over 200 countries around the world start and run a successful home business. Discover 3 easy steps to start your own home business and subscribe to The Home Biz Guy's FREE Home Business Secrets Mini-Course at: http://www.PlugInProfitSite.com/main-21753



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